O IMPACTO DAS ELEIÇÕES NOS GASTOS PÚBLICOS MUNICIPAIS: UMA ANÁLISE EM MUNICÍPIOS BRASILEIROS

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the behavior of public spending in the one hundred smallest Brazilian
municipalities by population between 2013 and 2023, focusing on the average evolution of expenses incurred during
the pre-election, election, and post-election periods. The research is classified as quantitative, descriptive, and
documentary, using official data from IBGE and STN. Information on realized revenues and public expenses, segmented
by functions, was collected, and multiple regression was performed to investigate the impacts of the electoral cycle on
municipal finances. The results indicate that, in general, public spending increases in strategic areas such as health,
education, and infrastructure during and after election years. An opportunistic behavior pattern of municipal managers
was observed, who use the budget to influence voters, favoring areas of greater political visibility and restricting
investments in less immediate sectors, such as science, technology, and culture. The Covid-19 pandemic between 2020
and 2021 aggravated this scenario, significantly increasing spending on health and social assistance, highlighting the
fiscal fragility of small municipalities. The practical implications of this study point to the need to improve fiscal control
mechanisms and transparency in municipal public management, as well as to promote technical training for managers
to reduce opportunistic behaviors and ensure greater fiscal sustainability. Theoretically, the research contributes to
advancing knowledge about political-budgetary cycles in contexts of high fiscal dependence and limited administrative
capacity, broadening the analyses of political, economic, and social impacts. Furthermore, the results serve as a basis
for formulating more efficient public policies and strengthening oversight by competent bodies, promoting greater
accountability by municipal governments in the allocation of public resources.